Power Sector Weighs a Roadmap to Near-Fossil-Free Electricity by 2040

How does a power grid built around thermal generation move to clean electricity without blackouts, stranded assets or a fight over who pays? On September 24, 2026, that question got a serious public airing when the LUMS Energy Institute convened a National Consultative Workshop on Renewable Energy Transition in Lahore, bringing together the Ministry of Energy, the National Grid Company, the Independent System Market Operator, WAPDA, NEPRA, thermal power plant operators and equipment manufacturers.

A research pathway, not yet a policy

The workshop built on the Institute's own technical report, "The Net Zero Transition: A Pathway to Clean and Sustainable Electricity by 2040", released in March 2026. It models how fossil fuels, which generate nearly half of Pakistan's electricity today, could fall to below 1% by 2040, through about 8,500 MW of new solar, 14,000 MW of wind and 7,000 MW of battery storage (holding 42,000 MWh) over a 15-year build-out, at an estimated cost of USD 5.5 billion. The study is a modelling exercise; the government has not adopted its figures as official targets.

Five priorities, and an unresolved question about thermal plants

Participants converged on five implementation priorities: coordinating renewable-capacity growth with transmission expansion so new solar and wind farms aren't stranded without grid connections, scaling up energy storage and demand-side measures, improving grid flexibility, securing what planners call "grid-support services" — the technical functions like voltage and frequency control that variable renewable output complicates — and assigning clear institutional ownership through a phased plan rather than leaving responsibility diffuse across agencies. Notably, thermal plant representatives and equipment manufacturers at the workshop expressed interest in conversion projects — repurposing existing fossil-fuel infrastructure rather than retiring it outright — opening a possible middle path between full plant closures and the status quo, with plant-specific technical assessments expected to follow.

Why the sequencing question matters for consumers now

The stakes are not abstract for a sector that has spent 2026 lurching from one fuel-cost crisis to the next. Pakistani consumers have absorbed five consecutive months of fuel charge adjustments tied to the cost of running thermal plants, and the country's long-standing circular debt problem is, at its root, a story about generation costs outrunning what the system collects. A credible shift toward cheaper renewable generation is one of the few paths regulators have to bring both down structurally, rather than managing the fallout month to month — but only if the transmission and storage buildout keeps pace with new generation, which is precisely the sequencing risk this week's workshop was convened to address. It also lands alongside separate policy moves this year to change rooftop solar net-metering rules, underscoring how contested and multi-front Pakistan's energy transition has become even before large-scale wind and storage projects break ground.

What comes next

The Institute said recommendations and institutional responsibilities from the workshop will be consolidated into a formal document, with a separate pre-feasibility assessment of thermal-to-synchronous-condenser conversions expected to be published before the end of 2026. No binding timeline or funding commitment was announced at the workshop itself — the priorities agreed on are a starting framework, not yet a funded plan, and the Ministry of Energy has not said when it will formally adopt the recommendations.

Build Better Pakistan's Energy Desk tracks Pakistan's power-sector policy, tariff decisions and the shift toward renewable generation.