Violence-Linked Deaths Surged 83pc in Pakistan Last Quarter, Think Tank Finds

Violence-linked fatalities across Pakistan jumped 83 percent in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous three months, according to a report by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), reversing a decline seen in the first two quarters of the year. The Friday Times described it as the most significant quarter-on-quarter rise recorded since 2021.

The numbers

The CRSS report counted at least 1,415 violence-linked fatalities and 558 injuries among civilians, security personnel and outlaws across 385 incidents between July and September 2026, as reported by Dawn and carried by Daily Jagran. Outlaws accounted for 921 of the deaths, over 65 percent of the total, across about 154 security operations, more than double the 453 recorded in the second quarter.

Balochistan and KP account for nearly all of it

Balochistan recorded 829 deaths, nearly 59 percent of the national total, with fatalities there rising 213 percent from 265 in the second quarter. The province also saw the highest number of incidents, 186, or more than 48 percent of the national count, though its 163 recorded injuries were lower than KP's. The quarter included a 96-hour run of operations the military said killed more than 71 militants in the province.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recorded 556 deaths, more than 39 percent of the national total, up over 17 percent from 475 in the prior quarter. KP logged 173 incidents (nearly 45 percent of the total) and the highest number of injuries of any province, 376. Together, Balochistan and KP accounted for 98 percent of all fatalities recorded nationwide in the quarter.

The wider security context

The report comes as the federal government says it is weighing emergency rule in KP under Article 232 of the Constitution, and after Pakistani airstrikes inside Afghan territory. The CRSS figures cover July to September and do not attribute the rise to any single cause.

Build Better Pakistan's Security Desk tracks national violence trends and will cover the next CRSS quarterly report when it is released.